It is not an attitude against Denmark and Sweden, I like them both very much, but it is silly for some to make out that the EU cannot strike a special deal which would acknowledge our special status which would never need to be offered to another country considering leaving. In addition to being their major export market we also are a major intelligence provider and a major provider of military defense without which they may need to bring forward the proposal to form an EU army. So it makes sense to negotiate in a friendly and positive manner.



The ball is in our court as to the timing of article 50 so there is nothing they can do until we are ready. Having said that I think the Conservatives should speed up their leadership contest and discourage those that have no chance. If it could quickly be reduced to two candidates then we could have a new PM well before the deadline.



But a few weeks delay before we press the trigger is the most sensible plan and it isn't any kind of threat as the rules allow for this and was always on the cards and as the PM found last night the majority of EU leaders fully understand this. Also the PM made clear at the EU council last night that the main reason for the referendum result was the public's wish to control our borders and immigration which of course was turned down in the so called pre referendum negotiations by Frau Merkel. How she must wish she had been a little more accomodating



In my view neither side will accept a trade war and business will have a major say. It will not be the percentages of our mutual trade that will decide this as it will come down to the potential loss of jobs particularly in Germany. The facts are that the EU share of our exports has been declining for many years as had the total EU share of world trade. In 2000 54% of our exports went to the EU but last year this had declined to 44% . We have a big and rising EU trading deficit which rose to 24billion for the first three months of this year so this is now heading for 100bn p.a.



Our total exports to the EU are I understand around 11% of total GDP and even if we are not able to access the single market without tariffs any loss in trade with the EU as a result could be made up in gains with the rest of the world. Granted this could take a period time but we would have up to two years to set this up. Then when we come out we would have the net £10bn in saved EU payments which represents about half of our total current export value to the EU which puts into perspective our position.

I'm saying that - just for once - you might want to consider those actively involved in something on a daily basis might know more about it than you.



I can see why Michael Gove appeals to you, he doesn't believe in "experts" either. At least not until he needs a doctor, or a lawyer.

wherever there is a little boy there is a mother ready to tell him he is a special little soldier so that's why he gets a sweetie. Wherever there is a nationalist there is a populist demagogue ready to tell him that country is special and deserving.



You and others have told us that our security and intelligence was done through NATO and not the EU. Are you proposing we threaten to leave our position in NATO if the EU don't give us what we want?



That's all lovely and all but pretty irrelevant. The delay may be acceptable but it is in no way a reason the EU will go back on its word and pre-negotiate.





10b is a tiny fraction of GDP. Margin of error stuff.



Again these numbers fail to tell the story that the EU risk is spread between more countries and ours is entirely concentrated. If trade stops tomorrow completely we lose nearly half our exports. Only Ireland and Cyprus in the EU would lose more than 10% of theirs. We would need to nearly double our exports to the rest of the world to cover that shortfall.

0.5% of GDP is the commonest figure I have seen. As you say, Governments can't plan & deliver anywhere as near as that. UK HE gets £5bn in research income alone from the EU.

I ask you again, are you saying what I said was wromg?

Missed the last 20 pages or so as have been busy in my professional life mitigating against some of the worst effects of the vote. At least the banks have modelled for this, unlike any politicians.



Anyway. Just popping back to ask whether Juan has come with an example of him being incorrect on any subject yet?



I do see that he now added knowing more about universities than people who've worked all their lives in universities to knowing more about finance than people who work deep in finance, knowing more about NHS management than NHS managers, and knowing more about the unleashed atmosphere of English racism than people who live in England. So I don't suppose he has.

But why can you not realise that we are not just a "special little soldier". Why do you persist in believing we are not a bigger player both in the EU and the world than the majority of EU members. To repeat we are the 5th biggest economy in the world and the largest single export market for EU countries and we are the second largest net contributor to the EU. Unless an acceptable deal can be worked out the EU will have serious problems including 100s of thousands of job loses. So of course we can negotiate from strength for a special case solution and in the end a compromise will be reached that can satisfy both parties.



I never mentioned NATO. What I said is that the UK is a major player in defense with the 4th highest budget in the world in real terms easily the highest in the EU and some 35% more than Germany who has a greater GDP. Which enables us for example to deploy warships to assist the EU in trying to protect the Schengen area regarding the refugee problem.



As you mentioned NATO are mainly responsible for peace in Europe yet most of the EU countries do not fulfill their contributions to the cost of NATO as we do, so they are benefitting from our greater spending in support of NATO that is protecting Europe. I am not suggesting we leave NATO for a moment but if the EU zealots are allowed their way and they are unreasonable we could certainly suggest they look elsewhere when they need the use of our military.



It is well known that our intelligence is among the best in the world and the EU countries have come to rely on what is largely one way traffic in this area at no cost to them.







It is a bit naive to not understand how diplomacy works. The PM reported to the House today and said a much and even discussed over dinner (informally of course) what some of our red lines are. So the process has already started. As I said the real negotiations will be between the leaders of the different countries and not the Eurocrats however important they think they are and work will go on behind the scenes with the ciil servants and diplomats.







Germany exports £71Bn (13%) to the UK France £37Bn (7%), Netherlands £36Bn (7%) Belgium/Lux £26Bn (5%) Spain £25Bn (5%) Italy £22Bn (4%), Ireland £17Bn (3%), Switz £11Bn (2%) Of these only Ireland and Switzerland do we have a surplus.



Much is made of the 500 million single market but in practice we sell most of our exports to a handful of countries. Our geographical location means we have greater logistical costs and problems for much of the Eastern EU countries.



A fifth of all cars manfutactured in Germany are exported to the UK with 800,000 employees. The UK is the fourth biggest export market for engineering companies etc. Germany also is a major car manufacturer and exporter in the UK.



But trade will not stop will it?. The worst case senario is that we do not do a trade deal at all and revert to the World Trade Organisation rules with their tariffs. But in this case the damage to the EU will be higher I would suggest.

Mine are only opinions like yours so we can all be wrong. Perhaps you might like to suggest an example or two and I am happy to say I was wrong if you are right ?



I thought you had run away to Ireland?

Irish citizenship is not so as to live in Ireland...it's to have an EU passport so as to give my children the sort of options you've enjoyed in deciding where to live, work or study. It's also an insurance should things go really tits up here and turn from Weimar to something even worse. Children and grandchildren of immigrants have long experience of needing to keep an extra passport and a suitcase packed.



I'll give a quick example of you getting something baldly wrong just from your last post. You stated the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world. It isn't. It's the 6th, and falling. As of last week. Wonder how that happened?

I used to work in the Department of Education. I know a lot has changed since then but it is my understanding that Colleges do still provide HE courses and receive funding from the HEFCE to cover this. I stand to be corrected of course.

Fear not this country will provide many worldwide opportunities for your children and grandchildren.



Surely you can come up with a better one than this after what you said. However when I first said we were the 5th largest we were, and I believe once calm returns after the panic in the markets we will the overtake France once again if not on the back of a rising pound it will be because of the trade we gain from the rest of the world. Chin up

They can do but have to get their degrees validated by Universities.